Oats prices, basis Chicago futures, traversed a wide range during 2002 reaching a high of $2.48 per bushel in the first quarter and then falling to $1.40 towards mid-year. Futures stabilized during the fourth quarter, closing the year around $2 per bushel, about unchanged from a year earlier. On balance it was a bullish year, but lacking the dynamic advance seen in 2001. However, among the domestic feed grain futures, oats trading volume is light and open interest relatively small.

Within the worldwide feed grain complex, oats production is the smallest crop although there are signs that the crop's long-term slippage outside the U.S. may be abating. The U.S. 2002/03 crop (June to May) of a near record low 119 million bushels compares with the previous year's low 117 million; the lower supply of the past two seasons contributing to the price firmness generally seen during calendar 2001 and 2002. U.S. production a decade earlier averaged over 250 million bushels. U.S. harvested oats acreage in 2002 of 2.1 million acres was a near record low: by comparison, decade earlier harvested acreage averaged almost 5 million acres. Average yield, however, has held fairly steady at around 60 bushels/acre although yield slipped to about 57 bushels in 2002. North Dakota is generally the largest producing state, but Minnesota topped the list in 2002 with a 16 million bushels crop vs. 12.8 million for North Dakota. Iowa and Wisconsin also produce in excess of 10 million bushels. Imports, mostly from Canada help complement U.S. supplies, were forecast at 100 million bushels in 2002/03 vs. 96 million in 2001/02.

U.S. oats 2002/03 carry-in stocks as of June 1, 2002 of 63 million bushels compare with 73 million a year earlier. The total domestic supply for 2002/03 of a record low 282 million bushels compares with 286 million in 2001/02. Disappearance was estimated at 224 million bushels vs. 223 million in 2001/02. Feed and residual use was forecast at 150 million bushels in 2002/03 vs. 148 million in 2001/02: feed/seed/industrial use was placed at 72 million bushels, unchanged from a year earlier. U.S. oats exports are insignificant. Carryover stocks on May 31, 2003 are forecast at a record low 58 million bushels. The average farm price for 2002/03 was forecast at $1.70-1.90/bus vs. "$1.59 in 2001/02 and $1.96 in 1996/97, the highest farm price of the l990's.

World oats production in 2002/03 of 26.7 million tons compares with 27 million a year earlier and an average of about 30 million metric tons in the mid-1990's. Globally, average yield show wide divergence, from as low of less than 1.5 tons per acre at times in Russia and China to almost5 tons per acre in Western Europe, notably France. Still, Russia is one of the largest producers with about 8.2 million tons in 2002/03, nearly a third of the world's total, owing to the large acreage devoted to oats. Among the few major producers Canada has shown relative steadiness in production during the past decade; averaging about 3.2 million tons although lower yields in 2002/03 dropped production to about 2.9 million tons.

Most of the world's oats production is consumed domestically and world trade is small. In 2002/03 exports were forecast at 2.23 million tons vs. 1.83 million in 2001/02 with Canada accounting for almost half the total, 950,000 tons. Importing nations are more numerous, but the U.S. is the consistent leader with 1.75 million tons in 2002/03 vs. 1.4 million in 2001/02.

Futures Markets

Oat futures and options are traded on the Chicago Board of trade (CBOT) and the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE).

Excerpted from the CRB Commodity Yearbook. For more information on CRB products click here

Related Links

Seasonal Chart

World Production Calendar

Government Reports

[Report Descriptions]

Crop Production

Prospective Plantings

Crop Progress

Export Sales

Supply & Demand Estimates

Grain Stocks

World Production Maps

 Poland
 Sweeden
 United States